Even before assembly election process began, Bihar was in news for Electoral roll revision, which was called SIR. The revision and review became a contest between the ruling NDA and opposition India bloc. Millions of voters were omitted from the roll and it is being contested whether the exercise really filtered the existing electorates as millions of people, many genuine and alive voters found their name missing in the draft.
The election process began in November 2025. People have voted for the first phase on November 6, 2025, and second phase will be held on November 11, 2025. The counting of votes will take place on Friday, November 14, 2025 , which happens to be the birthday of Pt. Jawahar Lal Nehru. Just coincidence.
Who is placed where ? Sold souls in lapdog Media are busy in setting agenda for their masters and creating a tsunami for the ruling parties. The stakes high, not for the people, but the corporates and their brand. Democracy and Electoral process are facing big threat from corporates across the globe, who control all pillars of democracy. Bihar is no different. Despite being far from coastal areas, sand, land and water is available for the corporates to make use of and make money!
Who is going to win in 2025. In last Assembly election, which was held in 2020, there was neck- to- neck fight between the opposition alliance of RJD-Congress-Left and JDu-BJP- others. In the final count, RJD emerged as largest single party , while BJP was second largest party. JDU of Nitish Kumar slipped to the third position. After the election, BJP was reluctant to make Nitish Kumar CM, but agreed to make him CM to broaden its base among EBC and OBC and women. For a brief period, Nitish Kumar left BJP & formed government with RJD alliance, only to return again to NDA. During the shortlived govt, Tejasvi Yadav as deputy CM with CM ordered caste census and also gave appointment to teachers. This is said to have worked in favour of Tejasvi & RJD , which has never received good Media. The 2020 election was held after first wave of covid. In 2015 Assembly election, RJD-JDU- Congress fought against BJP and won decisive mandate. But after some time, JDU changed its alliance partner and formed government with BJP. No wonder such flip flops have earned Nitish Kumar title of 'Paltu' and Kursi Kumar.
What has changed 2025? BJP and JDU are equal partners with other small groups. Money, Media, govt machinery and other are with BJP. Further, Nitish Kumar with Modi transferred INR 10,000 to women immediately before assembly election was announced. Analysts consider this vote bribing and vote buying. BJP also spread hatred and division to polarise the voters by calling SIR exercise to expel infiltrators. As usual, Muslim became obvious target.
Opposition RJD- Congress alliance are backing on 'change' , chance, choice and anti incumbency factors to help them at the hustings. Rahul Gandhi also organised Yatra against SIR and Vote Chori in Bihar. It is to be noted that irregularities in Electoral roll has been a contested subject, and it is being routed as the reason for Congress defeat in Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections in 2025. For some time, one Shankaracharya is also on a tour of Bihar. The RJD - Congress alliance is banking on its traditional voters to win. Congress is also hoping for the return of some upper castes voters to its fold, and if it happens, it can be a game changer. Women has also emerged as influencer group. It is expected, that transfer of NR 10,000 to their accounts will influence their decision to vote. In last Assembly election, MIM also made its debut and is expected do well in Seemanchal region. The murder of a Yadav in Mokama and statement by upper caste leaders may have an impact. People are eagerly watching the prospect of Tej Pratap Yadav, who was expelled by Lalu Prasad.
Though caste plays important and decisive role in deciding elections in across the country, Bihar and UP are particularly mentioned owing to the Mandal movement. After the decimation of the upper-caste Congress rule, very few upper caste Hindus have managed to hold the CM chair and their share in political leadership has declined. The credit is given to Mandal-based political leaders for this change. In the Parliamentary elections of 2014, 2019, 2024 caste played decisive role, when backwards and dalits were won over to vote for another OBC for the top post. Bihar which is seeing a high-voltage and high-decibel campaign from leaders, is busy in adding and subtracting numbers, which could lead them to magic figures. Why Bihar is so important? Bihar is important as it has always shown the mood and changed the mood of the nation. Indira Gandhi made her comeback in national politics after visiting a non-descriptive village in Bihar. How Bihar votes? Like elsewhere, it usually votes as per castes and Muslim.
Lalu Prasad was in power owing to support from his caste ( Yadav) ,Muslims, OBC, Dalits, who have significant presence. For 35 years, Lalu Prasad has been a factor in Bihar due to this magic number, which gives him support and strength. However, due to a rift in his Yadav vote bank, he was not able to win large number of seats in 2014, 2020 and 2024 Parliamentary elections. Still, his RJD was second in most places and polled more than one crore votes.
Nitish Kumar, who hails from Kurmi caste does not command much strength as his caste is just around 4 per cent of the state population and cannot play a decisive role. He came to power with the support from upper castes and Koeris, whose leader Upender Kushwaha is now in NDA. Interestingly, Narendar Modi, who claims to be ghanchi cannot hope to win election banking on ‘Teli’ caste, which is around 3.5 per cent.
For last couple of months, Patna is hosting meetings of every backward caste, sub-caste as leaders show their support to get ticket. Many times, these ‘Sabha’ are held by political parties. BJP organised one Teli-Sahu Sabha to win votes of Telis and Sahus. Similar meetings are organised by other parties. Backward classes and extremely backward classes together are around 50% of the population. It is believed that Backward class factor worked in favour of the BJP in 2014 elections, when it walked away with the bulk of the seats. R K Singh, former minister has threatened to launch his own upper caste party.
Chiragh of Ram Vilas Paswan, cannot get all Dalit votes and his ‘Dusadh’ caste is one of the three major dalit castes, other being Mushar and Mochi. Jeetan Ram Manjhi claims to be leader of ‘Mushar’ caste but his influence is to be tested and limited to some pockets of Magadh region. Among Mochi, there are many leaders and no one command the respect of leader like Jagjivan Ram. Shyam Rajak claims to be leader of Dhobi. Many claims to leader of Kushwaha/ koeri caste. Mukesh Sahini has positioned himself as leader of fishermen. For some time, Prashant Kishore/ PK with his Jan Suraj party is also making noise. He claims to give another alternative to the both alliances. This election is his first major test. His candidates may play decisive role in the date of both alliances in many seats.
Nitish has tried to divide dalits by creating Mahadalit group within them. He would like to see that leaders like Shyam Rajak, Uday Narain Chaudhri help him in winning Dalit votes. Dalits are 19 % of the population.
Upper castes have many leaders and they struggle among themselves for power and position. With less than 2 per cent share in population, Kayasths have occupied top positions in government and are considered influential beyond the state. Landowning ‘Bhumihar’ caste who are around 4 per cent of the population are considered powerful and have enjoyed muscle power under Nitish. Nitish has given patronage to Anant Singh, Sunil Pandey, Anand Mohan Singh.
After being with the BJP for 25 years, he enjoys clout among traders and upper castes, Nitish is still banking on Bhumihar leaders like Lallan Singh to do the ground work. A section of upper caste, particularly Brahmins were once loyal to the Congress ( Nehru family)and their vote pattern will affect the prospect of the India alliance. Upper castes together constitute 14 % of the population.
Like Upper castes, Muslims who are around 16 % per cent of the state population have no leader of their own. Areas adjacent to Bengal –Seemanchal—has the large concentration of Muslim population, and they can play decisive role in 25-30 Assembly constituencies, and are likely to influence the outcome in another 35-40 seats. There is leadership crisis among Muslims, and MIM / Asad Owasi are working to claim it. Some Muslims have tried to project themselves as Pasmanda leaders who mainly represent Ansari and Rayeen castes. In recent times, BJP has also tried lure backward Muslims, without any policy in place.
Caste- Break up (based on 1931 census)
Upper Caste 17
Brahmin 6.4; Bhumihar4.1; Rajput5.7 ; Kayastha 1.5;
Backward Castes 46
Yadav 14.6; Kurmi 3.8; Koeri 5.7; Bania 0.7; Barhi 1.2; Dhanak 2.6 ; Ghatwar 0; Kahar2.0; Lohar 1.3; Kandu 2.4; Kewat 0.9 ;Kumhar1.4; Mali 0.3; Mallah 2.1;Nai 1.7 ;Tanti 2.2 ;Teli 3.2 ; Tharu 0.2
SC 18:
Mochi 5.3; Dusadh 5.8; Musahar 3.4
Muslims: 16
The second phase of election will be held in few days, and counting will take place on November 14, 2025. In political circles, people are certain that Nitish Kumar will not be CM. It is be seen whether the vote heralds a new beginning . The verdict may also impact National politics.
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